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Old 9th November 2014, 11:55 AM   #1
Sek Des
 
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Default Analis: Kenaikan BBM Berdampak Hingga Akhir 2015




Rencana kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) diperkirakan menghambat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pengamat ekonomi, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, memperkirakan dampak itu masih akan terasa hingga November 2015. “Biasanya pertumbuhan akan melambat tiga triwulan setelah harga naik," kata dia kepada Tempo.

Berdasarkan pengalaman, kata Yudhi, setiap 10 persen kenaikan harga BBM akan meningkatkan inflasi rata-rata 0,7 persen. Jika pemerintahan Jokowi menaikkkan harga hingga Rp3.000, maka inflasi akan mencapai 3,5 persen. “Dengan melihat kondisi sekarang, artinya angka inflasi nantinya ada dikisaran 8,5-9 persen,” ujarnya.

Yudhi mengatakan kenaikan inflasi merupakan konsekuensi dari penurunan daya beli masyarakat dan aktivitas para pelaku bisnis. Belanja rumah tangga yang naik pengeluaran untuk pangan dan transportasi. “Yang paling terpukul tentu saja masyakat menengah-bawah,” katanya. “Pemerintah harus menghitung dampak tersebut.”

Untuk saat ini, kata Yudhi, kenaikan harga BBM yang ideal adalah Rp2.000 per liter. Angka itu dinilai cukup moderat agar tidak mempengaruhi tingkat inflasi yang terlalu tinggi. “Kemungkinan akan bergerak di kisaran 7-7,5 persen. Dan itu artinya perekonomian kita masih punya ruang untuk tumbuh,” katanya.



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